We were reviewing a solution designed to reduce costs using the latest serverless stack. However, we soon realized that the solution did not address some previously unnoticed constraints. A teammate then announced that they had known the solution wouldn't work. Confused, I asked why they hadn't raised their concerns earlier. They responded, saying it was just a gut feeling and that the hidden constraints were not that difficult to predict.
A couple of months later, I had a similar experience at the airport with my family. We had packed a few cardboard boxes instead of luggage, and they began to break during travel. I told my family that I had known this would happen, but when they questioned why I hadn't stopped them earlier, I had no answer.
This led me to research why both my teammate and I felt this way, and I came across a form of cognitive bias called hindsight bias.
What is Hindsight Bias?
Hindsight bias is the tendency to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were.
You may have seen this in real life too. A win by your favorite team, a stock market/crypto bull run, or a system crash all appear inevitable after they happen, even though they were not easy to predict beforehand.
Why Do People Behave This Way?
Researchers believe that this happens due to a combination of three factors:
Selective Remembering: People tend to selectively remember facts and data points that make it seem like a particular outcome was inevitable.
Better Understanding of Past Events: People confuse understanding something better after it happens with it being easily understandable beforehand.
A Desire to Live in a Predictable World: People want to believe that the world is predictable, as it helps them feel more in control of their lives.
Why is Hindsight Bias Problematic?
Hindsight bias, also known as the "knew-it-all-along" phenomenon, causes several issues that can be damaging to both work and personal relationships:
Overconfidence:Predicting issues and problems is an invaluable skill that requires context and deep knowledge. People unaware of hindsight bias may become overconfident in their abilities, which can lead to trouble in their work and personal lives.
Fault Finding: Hindsight bias leads to unjustly criticizing those who make mistakes, assuming they were careless, even when it wasn't possible to foresee the error. It also contributes to victim-blaming, telling victims of crimes that they should have known better, despite the fact that it was impossible to anticipate the events.
How to Avoid Hindsight Bias
While it’s almost impossible to completely avoid cognitive biases, we can at least attempt to minimize their impact on our behavior using the following methods:
Acknowledgement: Being aware of hindsight bias itself helps immensely. Recognizing that it’s a natural cognitive bias and reminding ourselves that not all outcomes are predictable goes a long way in negating its impact.
Recollecting Thoughts and Feelings: Try to actively recollect your thoughts from before an event occurred. Asking ourselves whether we could have truly foreseen it can help understand whether the event was indeed predictable or if we are just selectively remembering (reconstructing our memory) about it.
Logging Predictions: In the programming world, developers and solution architects keep records of changes in design and architecture (called Architectural Decision Records, ADRs). These records contain details like the problem at hand, possible solutions considered, and the decision taken. A similar approach towards significant personal and work choices can do wonders.
I hope this post helps in understanding and spreading awareness about this cognitive bias.
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